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Stochastic Net Basin Supply Series Using a Contemporaneous Shifting Mean Model

Laura Fagherazzi;José Salas, Oli Sveinsson
A stochastically generated series of 50,000 years of monthly net basin supply (NBS) estimates was developed for the upper Great Lakes to evaluate potential Lake Superior outflow regulation plans and other water management options as part of the adaptive management portion of the study. The data generation used the same technique as was employed during the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Study. The Contemporaneous Shifting Mean Model was used in generating the stochastic series of NBS. Levels and outflows were also computed for this time series using the Coordinated Great Lakes Regulation and Routing Model. The selection of a stochastic model was made based on a review of the Great Lakes hydrologic characteristics and available models, their pros and cons and suitability for the Upper Lakes Study. Statistical features of the historical data were retained during model development and in the supply sequences generated.
Stochastic Modelling and Simulation of Great Lakes System
Viewable Data:
Coordinated Residual Net Basin Supplies
50,000-yr Stochastic NBS - IUGLS Fagherazzi Version
Additional Data and Information

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Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
Hydroclimate Information
Questions We Asked
What impacts could climate variations have on regulation?
What impacts could climate variations have on levels?
Key Findings
Future conditions are uncertain, so a new regulation plan must be robust
Approve Lake Superior Plan 2012
Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts
Water Supply Sequences